Noel News Thousands of candles can be lighted from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened. Happiness never decreases by being shared. BUDDHA Welcome to another newsletter I started the last newsletter discussing interest rates and the rise of 50 basis points last Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 2.35%, confirms my opinion that rates are moving upwards. The Reserve Bank wants to get rates at a level which it regards as normal and will keep increasing rates by 50 basis points every month until that target is reached. Many economists think that 3.35% will be that target but I reckon it’s nearer 4%. So much will depend on inflation, but when you consider that petrol prices will rise this month as the government subsidies are removed, and life in Europe can only get worse as winter draws near, it’s hard to see any ...
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Noel News A bad attitude is like a flat tyre – you won’t get very far until you change it. JOYCE MEYER Welcome to another newsletter I am writing this on Thursday, 11 August and am pleased to report that our long-delayed renovations are finally proceeding smoothly. Better still there has been a good pick up in markets since my last newsletter and I have used the opportunity to cash in part of my investments to restore the liquidity I lost when the renovations went way over budget. I hate cashing in investments, but I would rather have a bit less money in super and a bit more money in the bank in these challenging times. Interest rates have just increased by 50 basis points taking the cash rate to 1.85%. It was no surprise – the Reserve Bank has made it clear that rate rises will continue until interest ...
Noel News I am convinced that life is a game where no one need be a loser… but I am equally as certain that one cannot participate in this mysterious act of living with any hope of satisfaction unless one understands a few simple rules. OG MANDINO The Greatest Success in the World Happy New Year? Good morning, I’m writing this on Friday 8 July – the beginning of a new financial year. I’ll start off by talking about markets because it’s been a pretty tough year for superannuation, and there are many scary headlines warning us how bad things may get in the following 12 months. It’s been a particularly bad year for my own superannuation fund which is down by 33% mainly due to exposure in international managed funds who had a big exposure to companies like Flutter and Zillow in their portfolios. In just one year ...
Noel News Whoever said that diamonds are a girl’s best friend never owned a dog. I am writing this newsletter at lunchtime on Tuesday 14th June while the stock market is being smashed. It’s one of the worst days I have experienced – it’s always a shock to the system to see so much red ink on the screen. I guess all we can do is proceed with confidence in the knowledge that the share market has always been a good long-term investment. Most of my portfolio is now in index funds or various managed funds which gives me an interest in companies like Amazon, MasterCard, Zillow, BHP and the Australian banks. Remember, if the index is down 5% you are effectively buying the assets that make up the index at a 5% discount. I know it’s hard to cop, but the alternative is to panic and cash out and ...
Noel News Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many. Welcome to another newsletter It was always going to be an election budget, and there were some good things in it. But the cash handouts are fiscal irresponsibility at its worst. Think about it: the Treasurer revealed that there would be a deficit of $78 billion in the forthcoming 12 months. This is money we, as a nation, have to borrow. One of the first rules of good money management is to avoid bad debt, and use good debt. Bad debt is when we borrow for consumption, such as travel, clothing, or a wedding, and good debt is when we borrow for assets such as property and shares, which will provide lasting benefit. I have no problem whatsoever with government borrowing for roads, infrastructure and other items that have a long-term payback, but I see ...
Apr 10, 2022
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Noel News Education is not the learning of facts, but the training of the mind to think. ALBERT EINSTEIN Welcome to another newsletter. When I wrote the last one, I had no idea that a war in Ukraine would be taking place by the end of February. These events, and all the scary media that accompanies them, terrify people. Naturally this has been accompanied by massive falls in markets all around the world. As usual, I’m getting a raft of emails from people asking whether they should quit their investments before it’s too late. The other question many are asking is what likely effect the situation in the Ukraine may have on stock markets. It is normal to feel apprehensive when the market has a downturn, especially when accompanied by the threat of war. I understand that. But I am comforted by the latest research from my long-term friend, ...
LAST Noel News of 2021 Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards. SOREN KIERKEGAARD Welcome to our last newsletter of 2021 It has certainly been an interesting year. If you cast your mind back to March 2020 the stock market was in freefall, and most people were predicting major permanent job losses. Since then, the market has boomed and one of the biggest problems the world has are shortages. Until recently I had never heard of AdBlue which is a diesel exhaust fluid. It’s made from urea which has become scarce, and once it runs out it will cripple a large portion of the Australian truck fleet. One of my golfing mates has a Mercedes sedan and, because of emissions control, has to add AdBlue to his diesel fuel through a separate tank in the car. He says that the car will not start if ...
Noel News Everybody is a genius, but if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing it is stupid. ALBERT EINSTEIN Welcome to our November newsletter Can you believe it’s almost Christmas? I guess the major topics right now are interest rates and inflation. There is no doubt we have reached the bottom of the interest rate cycle, and rates will start to move upwards again. I see that most major banks are already increasing their fixed interest rates. Maybe that’s something that’s worth exploring if you have a housing loan. Just be aware that taking out a fixed rate is like taking out insurance – there is always a cost. Many fixed-rate loans have heavy fees for early exit so make sure you do your homework if you’re thinking of changing. I am happy to recommend a good mortgage broker if you ...
Nov 13, 2021
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Noel News “You are in the right place at the perfect time. Keep enjoying the pursuit of your potential.” DAVID MELTZER Welcome to our October newsletter We are now entering the last quarter of this year and I predict it is going to be a challenging one. We are in a unique situation right now with four states virtually Covid free, New South Wales attempting to move back to normality whatever that means, and Victoria coping with an ever-increasing number of cases. New South Wales and Victoria have accepted that it’s impossible to have a zero Covid environment and they are now focused on how to handle that. The other four states are reluctant to open their borders for fear of being overwhelmed by cases brought in from overseas travellers. Remember, it just took one limo driver to infect over 1000 people in New South Wales. Everybody agrees that ...
Noel News – a New Financial Year “It’s okay to celebrate your wins, but remember, wins are milestones, not finish lines.” DAVID MELTZER Welcome to another newsletter and to the start of another financial year. As I write this, the Australian stock-market is at a record highs, and American stock markets are in a similar position. The top 20 performing Australian super funds returned over 18% to their members over the year, a result that nobody would have predicted 12 months ago. I also noticed in my daily diary that exactly two years ago the Australian stock-market was at a six year high. The question that seems to be in everybody’s minds is “when will the big crash come?”. It’s a reasonable question when you think of the amazing 12 months we have enjoyed with our investments, but you need to keep in mind that nobody has the power to accurately forecast ...
